I'm in favor of Turkey joining the EU. What's to fear? I'm in the minority in the EU, however. Most people in the EU are opposed.
Today's Irish Independent describes the popular mood as "nervousness about admitting a large and poor nation which borders the most unstable region in the world". Well, negotiations with Romania & Bulgaria didn't cause this type of problem. Neither Romania nor Bulgaria is much richer than Turkey – Romania's GDP per capita is $7,700, Bulgaria's GDP per capita is $8,200 and Turkey's is $7,400 – and both Romania & Bulgaria border the Balkans, which could hardly be described as "stable". No, there's more to it than poor. The Irish Independent left out "Muslim" in that sentence and that is a big part of the reason for the 'nervousness'
As I said, I'm in favor of Turkey joining, but at the same time I think the EU is taking a massive gamble if it begins to move towards granting membership to Turkey prior to a sea change in public opinion. This could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
The very existence of the EU is at stake here and the issues of Islam and immigration are going to have to be faced or the popular 'nervousness' reflected in polls and the votes in Holland and France in the spring will give way to animosity. It won't take much for a political movement to capitalize on that animosity and bring the whole European project down.
