The ECB is not an independent voice in the Nama debate

Henry McDonald writing in today's Guardian says

Irish taxpayers will hand over tens of billions of euros to the republic’s banks in order to write off high risk loans owed to them by the country’s builders and speculators.

That is not actually correct. The banks are not "writing off" the high risk loans. They're off-loading them. Those who owe will still owe, only they will no longer owe the banks but us. The builders and speculators are not (necessarily) being bailed out with Nama.

So who's winning here? The banks, obviously, but not the developers and speculators unless you don't believe the Minister for Finance and others in the government. {And, by no means am I questioning your disbelief. I share it.}

But what's really gnawing at me is the banks. What is this €54bn for? Is it simply because they lent money to people and they want it back? No, clearly not. They want the €54bn back because they owe it to others, but who are they?

I'd like to see the figures, but my gut says that most of those "others" are European – mostly German – banks I'd wager. If that is true then the European Central Bank's endorsement is not that of an interested, but independent party as the Minister for Finance would have us believe. No because let's face it the ECB is really run by the Germans and they want their banks repaid.

I wonder how much pressure our "European partners" have put on us to find a means to see those loans repaid.

Won't the €54bn cost us anything?

I like Brendan Keenan and feel unqualified to question his analysis, but something he's written about Nama in today's Irish Independent is really bothering me.

Keenan argues, rightly, that the €54bn we're paying for the banks' bad property loans cannot be lost entirely because short of a complete economic collapse "those loans are worth something." True.

He then asks

will the loans be worth €54bn in 10 years' time? If they are, there is no cost to the taxpayer. If they are not, there will be a cost. If they should turn out to be worth more, the taxpayer will gain.

Well ...

Won't this €54bn cost us something? I mean, we have to borrow this money, don't we? Doesn't that mean the loans have to be worth €54bn PLUS the cost of borrowing the money?

If I borrow $100 at 5% per annum and lend it to someone who pays the $100 back in 10 years I'm out $62.89 (I hope I remember my compound interest formula correctly).

We taxpayers will have to borrow the €54bn to buy these wonderful property loans from the banks. I know this is a rough calculation, but ten years at 4% interest on €54bn will be about €26bn. Don't we have a right to expect to get that back too?

Gambling still at the heart of the banks

The share price of AIB has risen by 430% (or so) over the past six months. Bank of Ireland is up over 890% in the same period!

Why? Has the economy recovered so magnificently in Ireland to warrant such rises in the banks' share prices? Eh, no, just in case you were in any doubt.

No, the reason the price of the shares has gone up so much is because of all the government's plans, which means that all these people buying the banks' shares know that the government's intervention - that is, Nama - will be so kind to the banks that profitability is only around the corner. And, it means that gamblers are still a big force in the banks.

How do I know? I know because all these people buying the banks' shares are betting on the government actions. They have not been buying with a view to a return to the Celtic Tiger days and profits all around. No, they are simply making a bet on what Brian Lenihan will do today.

Unless the Minister for Finance stings these people pretty severely today, we can all expect that the banks will - in short order - return to the sort of blind lending as described by Colm Keena in today's Irish Times.

Although your average customer seeking a loan is asked to give a complete account of his or her financial affairs, this was not the case with major developers at the height of the property boom.

“In the 2004/2005 to 2007 period, the borrower dictated the terms in which they did business with the banks,” according to the source. “The banks were told: ‘This is the way I do business and if you don’t give me the loan I will go to someone else who will’. And that was usually Anglo [Irish Bank].

No Sept collapse for this year's Mets!

It was just about this point in the season the past two years that the Mets began their end-of-season run for second place, having calculated that first place was simply too much hassle. Thankfully, they got their collapse out of the way early this year and there's absolutely no tension left to the season.

Avoiding the wildlife on Dublin's roads

A month ago I was driving through Saratoga County late(ish) one night and I was on edge as I was worried about the number of spindly-legged young deer I saw along the side of the road. Every clump of trees seemed to be shielding a pair of deer and every so often one of them would bound across the road in front of me. You have to be careful with deer because if you hit one they can do a lot of damage to your car and to yourself if they happen to fly up over the hood, as they're prone to do.

Well late(ish) last night I was driving through Dublin and I had a similar experience. Only instead of the spindly-legged young deer, I had to take care due to the number of wobbly-legged young dears who were everywhere. Every clump of parked cars seemed to shield a pack of young dears and every so often one would stumble out in front of me. You have to be careful with the young dears because if you hit one ... Uggh.

It's more than past time to cull the young dears population on Dublin's streets.

FÁS — What is it good for? Absolutely nothing.

It's well past time that FÁS was wound up. FÁS sums up so much that is wrong with government intervention in the economy. Well-intentioned short term solutions become permanent fixtures; the mission keeps expanding - as does the budget; objectives become long-term, vague expressions of hope; corruption takes root because nobody is really holding the organization accountable; etc.

I know some people might argue that the current economic climate is exactly when we need FÁS - I doubt it - but if that's true, then fine. Close FÁS and start a new organization, one with a limited life-span, tight controls and small budget.

I agree with Winne Mandela (sort of)

Sheesh. What's the world coming to? I can't help but agree with Winnie Mandela, who says that gold medalist Caster Semenya is a victim in all this arguing over whether she should have been allowed to compete in the women's 800m race at last month's World Championships.

Mandela says "She did not make herself. God decided to make her that way and that can't be held against her."

True. It can't be held against her. This is so far removed from a doping scandal, where cheating athletes have tried all sorts of excuses. "Ginseng tea," anyone? I hope they let her keep her gold medal.

However, if these reports are true there's no way that Semenya can be allowed to compete against women again. The advantage she had this summer will only increase as 17 turns to 18 turns to 19 and so on. Semenya will soon be winning by half a lap. Nope, there'll be no more women's races for Semenya.

While I understand her mother's desire to protect her daughter now, she knew and has known about these issues since her baby was born. Perhaps she was too naive to realize that the truth would be public knowledge some day, I don't know. I feel bad for the family because I think they were probably lying to themselves and misled by those who should have known better – like the Athletics authorities in South Africa.

I cannot for the life of me understand what those people were thinking. They surely knew this would be an issue and they must also have been aware that it could be pretty rough for a teenager to go through such scrutiny. I hold them responsible for this mess and for the troubles that Semenya now finds herself in.

The 9/11 season on t.v.

There is a 9/11 season for television. From Sep 1 through the 11th there are just so many documentaries on September 11. It's been this way since 2002. Channel 4 definitely has the most 9/11 documentaries this year and, I think, every year. Last night they showed 102 Minutes That Changed America, which is shocking, jarring actually.

I know it aired on the History Channel last year. I'm not sure if it was ever on over here before, but it sure brings it all back.

I'm sure glad that I wasn't in front of anyone's camera on the day itself. Some of the people who spoke to the camera after watching the first building fall said things that maybe they would rather have been simply lost forever and not preserved on film and shown on television. Maybe.

Another great documentary that was on over the weekend dealt with the conspiracy theories about the attacks. This one was on the National Geographic channel and I know it's been on before, but I never saw all of it. Anyway, it was tremendous in debunking one nonsensical myth after another and had a great line from one contributor who said the "truthers" were playing Whack a Mole - every time one of their notions is shown to be nonsense, they come back with another.

If you speak Flemish (or Dutch, I guess) ...

You'd think that seeing as I was born in New Amsterdam I'd be fluent in Dutch, but unfortunately not. If you can read Flemish (Dutch - not sure how different they are) can you help me out?

I'm trying to understand this (especially the bold bits).

Om 15 uur is er in de Sint-Medarduskerk is er de Pontificale Eucharistieviering voorgegaan door Mgr. Roger Vangheluwe, bisschop van Brugge. In de kerk worden alle aanwezige missievrienden waaronder gouverneur Paul Breyne, burgemeester Bernard Heens, OCMW – voorzitter Lieve Avet begroet. Dit Diocesaan Zendingsfeest wordt muzikaal ondersteund door het koor Hoogland van Wijtschate onder leiding van Marc Lewyllie en Hubrecht De Gersem. Omwille van de heiligverklaring van pater Damiaan, de grootste Belg, zingt het koor ook het Damiaanlied. Naast de missionarissen, zijn alle jongeren uit de buurt die actief zijn in een ontwikkelingsproject uitgenodigd, alsook de jongeren die vorige zomer pelgrimeerden naar de Wereldjongerendagen in Sydney Australië.

Om 16 uur stelt pater Michel Coppin, directeur Missio, aan de gelovige gemeenschap de missionarissen voor die weldra terug vertrekken en ontvangen zij het zendingskruis van onze bisschop. Het zendingskruis wordt speciaal gemaakt in een tinfabriek in Frans-Vlaanderen en is een Iers-Keltisch kruis. In de Wijtschatestraat in Wijtschate staat er zo’n groot kruis bij de ingang van het oorlogskerkhof. Dit is een granieten kruis in keltische stijl. Het werd ontworpen door generaal Hickie (commandant van de 16de Ierse divisie. Het oorspronkelijke kruis “Ginchy Cross” werd in hout vervaardigd van oude eiken balken en planken gevonden op het slagveld aan de Somme. Het stond gedurende de oorlog 14-18 tussen Ginchy en Guillemont in Frankrijk. Naar model van dit houten kruis nu bewaard in het Islandbridge War Memorial in Dublin (Ierland) werden slechts 3 granieten kruisen gemaakt en geplaatst op de voormalige slagvelden van de Ierse troepen, in Wijtschate (1926), in Salonica (Macedoniê) en Guillemont (Frankrijk). Een paar jaar terug vernoemde Koning Albert II op de televisie dit kruis dat enig is in België en dat staat in Wijtschate.

Tijdens de viering ontvangen alle aanwezigen een gebedskaart met foto van het zendingskruis. Het zendingskruis is een verwijzing naar de oorlog 1914 – 1918 waarin Wijtschate volledig verwoest werd. Het gebed op deze fotokaart werd geschreven door Mgr. R. Vangheluwe. De uitleg over het kruis werd geschreven door heemkundige José Depover uit Wijtschate.

I tried using Google translate and Babelfish, but couldn't quite make sense of what was happening.

"We don't need Nama"

Three cheers for Sean Barrett. I know there have been lots of columns putting Nama down, but for me this is the best one. Straight-forward, simply-written and deadly.

The builders will be relieved of their gambling debts on high property prices. The bankers will be relieved of the costs of their incompetent lending and senior regulators will no longer have egg on their faces but be reinvented as neo-Keynesian economic heroes who save the economy.

It will be so easy. Nama pays off the builders at a bit less than bubble prices, builders pay off the unreformed banks and banks will immediately begin investing in productive economic activities and will never be codded by builders again, really. Nama is a macroeconomic three-card trick to refinance incompetent Irish bankers and reflate a property bubble without addressing reform in the property market, banks or bank regulation. It has dire microeconomic consequences for these sectors and adverse consequences for the rest of the economy.

… The proposition that Nama should pay more for impaired assets because it alone is aware of their long-term economic value is at best a gamble with public money founded on a belief that Nama knows something that no one else in the market knows about these items.

This way of doing business has been agreed, we are told with some pride, by the IMF, the ECB and the EU Commission. This might be as simple as international bureaucrats rescuing national bureaucrats from a hole of their own making. We also need to know whose version of this crisis was communicated to the international bureaucracies.

I love his take on the bureaucrats involved. More than anyone, they're getting away scot-free.

We need competence in financial regulation across the Central Bank, Financial Regulator and Department of Finance, with massive management changes in all three bodies. We must solve the present crisis in the three sectors that caused it, bad builders, bad bankers and bad regulators.

The only quibble I have with Barrett's piece is his reliance on the Canadian model. We don't control our own currency, Canada does. I'd love to ask Barrett about the euro's role in the crisis and our regulators' failure to grasp how the old rules don't apply when you have a currency priced to suit an economy to which we're only loosely tied.

Can't we skip the stupid in this referendum?

Everyone knows that the truth is stretched during political campaigns, but it seems that EU referenda really bring out the most outrageous lies and distortions. I was driving through Dublin on Sunday evening and saw signs advocating for a No vote, claiming that the minimum wage could be lowered to €1.84 if we vote Yes.

As any of you who've been coming here for a while know full well, I'm hardly a big fan of the EU. I voted No to Lisbon last June. I'm open to reasonable arguments - from both sides. This is one is simply stupid.

There is ZERO possibility that the minimum wage will be forced down to that level (or anywhere) by any EU Court. Now it may be true that subcontractors from poorer member states may earn less while working here, but that's not the same as what is implied in their ridiculous signs.

Nor can any moves by the government in the current economic circumstances to reduce the minimum wage - and I don't remember hearing anything other than suggestions from outside the government - be anything other than a national response to a national crisis. The EU won't force it down (although if we default the ECB may well do so. That won't be due to Lisbon, but Maastricht, which is not on the ballot.)

This referendum is way more important than the one last June. Last June the issue may have been the same - whether to ratify Lisbon or not - but the situation has changed dramatically. Now the question is: will Lisbon be a good or bad thing with regards to our current crisis and the recovery period. I'm not sure yet, but I'd like to think we can consider the matter with at least a minimum of rationality.

I'm sick of "fair"

I get so tired hearing how this isn't fair or that isn't fair. It's bad enough when little kids pout about something being "not fair." But, when the newspapers start whining in the same tone I just want to shout, "Grow up!"

The other day it was the Irish Independent and the new aptitude test for medical students here, today it's the Belfast Telegraph and the so-called "hidden" airline charges. Okay, it's not actually the paper that's doing the moaning, but they give space to moaners such as the Consumer Council.

Now we all know that Ryanair is the target for this sort of thing even though they're not named here. And we all also know that the fare that Ryanair advertises may not bear much relation to the final cost of your flight, but that's not due to hidden charges. Before you buy you get to see those extra costs add up. It may be annoying, but it's not theft or any form of injustice. And, as I've said many, many times, you can avoid those charges if you play by Ryanair's rules. (Yes, you can get round trip air fares for less than €10. I don't think I've ever paid more than €20 for a round trip on Ryanair - INCLUDING all the so-called "hidden" fees.}

The other day I wanted to buy a book online. The company I was buying from was one I'd bought from many times in the past, but I'd never bought a book before. Anyway when it came time to check out I discovered that they add a book shipping supplement. Needless to say, I abandoned the purchase at that stage. I was a little annoyed, but it didn't occur to me to moan about the unfairness of this last moment additional cost. I just bought the book elsewhere.

Haven't these people heard, "There is no such thing as fair."

"Fairness and social mobility" are irrelevant in choosing doctors

Dr Sean McDonagh says that the new aptitude test that students must take in order to study medicine seems to "violate the State's policies on fairness and social mobility." McDonagh says the test puts "poorer and rural students at a disadvantage."

My reaction is: so what? Unless McDonagh believes that this new aptitude test will result in a disimprovement in the medical care available in Ireland why should I or anyone else - rich or poor - care. Surely the best policy is one that will lead to the best doctors, no? And that is the idea behind the new medicine aptitude test that all would-be medical students now have to take.

Yesterday's Irish Independent had a few articles about students who had scored 600 points on the Leaving Cert not getting a place to study medicine while some with scores as "low" as 520 did manage to get a place. And this should bother me?

Honestly, I don't need my doctor to be able to write poetically about Macbeth or be able to speak fluent French or regurgitate long passages in Irish. No, all I need is for my doctor to be a competent doctor. The math and science scores have to be good, but everything else can be adequate.

The missing 35,000 people

Supposedly there were 50,000 people watching the Bray air show yesterday. That's what RTE says, that's what the Irish Independent says and I'm sure others are saying the same. Well, based on what I saw from the top of Bray head, in order for there to have been 50,000 people watching the show you'd have to count pretty much everyone who was in Bray at the time because I would doubt there were many more than 10-15,000 actually down at the sea front.

Atheists in the trenches

There's been quite a bit in the Irish Times about atheism lately. John Waters' column on Friday and Shane Hegarty's on Saturday are only two examples. Anyway, it got me thinking back to something I saw when I was in Belgium.

Most of the headstones in the WWI cemeteries have crosses on them. The Americans, French and Germans actually use a cross-shaped stone as the marker.

{French cemetery near Ieper in Belgium.}

Every so often in the American and German cemeteries I was in (back in '07) I came across a grave with a Star of David headstone. And, in the French cemeteries I saw some for their Muslim dead. But, how did they mark atheists' graves? I never came across anything that might have answered that question.

The British used a rectangular-shaped stone with a rounded-off top rather than the cross-shaped stone. The British headstones have a cross (or Star of David) etched into the stone. However, it was only in the British cemeteries that I came across stones marking what might have been atheists' graves.

Obviously, I have no way of finding out for sure, but this grave of a soldier from the Royal Irish Fusiliers looks so bare that I just assumed he had made it known that he wanted no cross or any religious marker on his grave. And they say there are no atheists in foxholes.

Moonwalk video

When I saw this Washington Post headline - "Video of Moonwalk From 1969 Restored" - I thought to myself, "Geez, haven't we seen enough of Michael Jackson already?" I bet I'm not the only one who'll have that reaction to that headline.

The First Pitch

Oh my God. I can't believe what I just saw. I'm sure there are millions of comments of a similar nature all over America, but I can't get over the fact that Barack Obama throws so badly. {Yeah, I'm nearly 24 hours late, but I didn't have a chance to watch last night's game until now.}

I don't care about bullet-proof vests and all that. He can't throw. I was mortified watching him. I can't help thinking his wife would have done a better job.

MORE: Okay, I found it on YouTube and it doesn't look as bad as I thought when I saw it on the television. He did go to the rubber, so points for that. Still, he looks very uncomfortable, which I hadn't anticipated.

If you're going to go on strike ...

I can claim no expertise with regards to industrial relations, but surely one rule of thumb for a union is that you should not go on strike if it's even vaguely possible that your employer would be just as happy to close the operation where you work? Well, the employees at our (publicly funded & run) local recycling center went on strike about two months ago and there seems to be little appetite to reopen the place. I can imagine that the County Manger is enjoying the added "revenues" he's getting so long as the center is closed. And, seeing as (a) it's not really essential and (b) it was probably only used by 20% (or so) of the local people (and that estimate is probably high) the workers may have overestimated their power.

The truth is I don't really know the ins and outs of the dispute. It's entirely possible that the workers are being so mistreated that a strike was the only option. I don't know, but the fact that I don't know and I was a fairly regular user of the center and even I've gotten over the center's closure shows how slight the workers' hold over their employer was.

Something else that I was interested in is the nature of going on strike. In the picture I pasted above there is no human being near the center; yet that was the middle of a workday when the center should have been open. Shouldn't the workers have been picketing there?

The strikers had left a few of their signs on a bench near the entrance and that was the only sign that the center wasn't simply closed down. That's not my impression of being on strike.

In Flanders Fields

I spent two days touring WWI sites last week and can't wait to go back. The fact that you can get to Charleroi for €8 round trip - everything included - may see me back there sooner rather than later.

I wrote about some of what I saw/did over here, but basically we toured cemeteries and monuments around Ieper (Ypres), Bethune in France and Thiepval. The original plan was to stick to the area around Ieper, but when we got the information we needed to locate my wife's great-grandfather's plot in Bethune, we went there.

Some observations:

• The British cemeteries are a different experience to the American ones. The number of visitors is far, far greater. I guess that's to be expected given the distances involved, but still when I was at the American WWI cemetery near Chateu Thierry in 2007 we were the only people there during the entire time we were at the cemetery. This goes back to what Charles Krohn said about how few Americans visit the WWI cemeteries even though thousands go to Normandy.
  
  
• The British do a much, much better job of explaining what happened in the various locations. Now, maybe that's because WWI had a much bigger impact on Britain than it did on America. I don't know. But, you can learn what happened at the various battles near each cemetery and there are many. I mean many. At some road junctions you might see half a dozen signs pointing in every direction. Next junction same again, but different cemeteries.
  
  
• The 50,000+ names of those British (including Irish) soldiers whose bodies were never identified that are listed on the Menen Gate are overwhelming. Same goes for Thiepval.


• Most of all, the Irish involvement. I know this is probably going to sound confused, but somehow being at Ypres and at the Somme - for a little while - and visiting my wife's great-grandfather's grave has really made me reconsider my view of Irish history for the period 1912-1922. I can't say I've come to any conclusions yet and I doubt it will be too shocking to me, but just the thought that far more men of Ireland were killed serving in the British Army than were in the IRA during the War of Independence never really occurred to me before last week. {And, that ignores all those Irishmen, like my grandfather, who served in the American Army or the armies of Australia or Canada or New Zealand.}
  

This is what we pay a license fee for?

First of all, I cannot believe RTE is showing the Michael Jackson show. I mean, really, gimme a break. This is a total farce, but what's worse is that the whole thing is commercial free! What, they couldn't get Guinness or whatever to sponsor it? I bet they didn't even try.

Well, if they have the money to burn on hours of revenue-losing nonsense then they should cut our license fee pronto.

We don't accept online bank statements

"It looked very nice." That's how Ireland looked to Ben Whitehurst from Texas as he was heading skyward after being denied entry to Ireland following his flight from America last week. Whitehurst was traveling with two other young guys and the three of them intended to backpack around Europe. The immigration authorities turned the three of them away, forcing them to spend $1,800 each on flights back to New York.

When I read the story in the local Texas paper I had two thoughts: (1) these guys were pretty naive and (2) this is pretty much how I looked and acted when I was their age and setting off on my first visit to these shores. The law says that visitors must prove prove they can support themselves while they're here. Fair enough, but I can't see why the immigration people wouldn't accept an online bank statement if they would have accepted a printed one. There has to be more to this story.

And, of course, these sorts of things are pretty darn common for young Irish travelers to America. So, it's not like the Irish authorities are unique in this.

$100 for your bag

Wow! Aer Lingus is introducing a $100 charge for that second bag on your Transatlantic round trip flight.

Thank God for Continental.

No quotas, thanks.

The Irish Times reported recently that women politicians want a quota system to ensure that a minimum number of Dáil deputies are women. Former Progressive Democrat TD Liz O'Donnell said that "without women in politics, our democracy was unfinished." Well, if women should be guaranteed a certain percentage of seats, what about other underrepresented sections of the population: people under 30; immigrants; people who haven't finished their Leaving Cert; people who are not teachers, lawyers, publicans; etc.

And, the truth is, our democracy will surely be finished if we start adopting quotas in a bid to deny the electorate their democratic rights to vote for whomever they want. Just as many women as men are eligible to vote. Why don't these women ask why this fact alone doesn't guarantee 50% of the Dáil deputies are women?

Don't mess with ESPNA

The NY Times says that British soccer fans are uneasy at the prospects of ESPN broadcasting English Premier League matches. Well, as a subscriber to ESPN's American sports network here (ESPNA), I'm concerned that they're going to add soccer to our prime-time schedule and ruin the American sports nature of the channel.

I haven't heard if ESPN is going to launch a new channel on which to broadcast their soccer so I'm fearing the worst.

Fooled by the Irish Examiner

I saw this article this morning and thought it was something. The headline is pretty eye-catching in itself - "Majority would oppose Papal visit, finds poll" - but the rest of the article is just as certain. Newstalk carried out a poll, which found that 51% of "the public" is opposed to a visit by the Pope.

That may well be true, but the Irish Examiner left out a fact that was included in the Irish Independent's report on the same poll: it was an online survey. Uggh. Read this from the Examiner's report.

The poll, carried out by Newstalk radio, found that 51% of 1,108 people questioned would not welcome Pope Benedict if he were to put an Irish trip on his itinerary any time soon.

I thought it was a proper poll with an appropriate attempt at selecting a representative sample of the population. A poll conducted via Newstalk's web site is open to all sorts of non-random selection issues.

Are Newstalk's listeners representative of the nation as a whole? Are those who are online representative of the nation as a whole? Are those who are motivated to respond to such a poll representative of the nation as a whole? Can those who do respond do so more than once?

For all I know the poll is an accurate reflection of the views of the nation, but if it is that's just pure dumb luck. And, I'm not criticizing Newstalk becuase I have no idea how they presented their poll and its findings. The Irish Examiner, however, clearly misrepresented what the poll was.

Worse than that, they fooled me and I included this nonsense on the Newshound today. For that reason I'm angry.

What if Michael Jackson was a Catholic priest?

I always thought Michael Jackson was creepy - major league creepy. I still cannot understand how any parent allowed their child to get near him. Was he a pedophile? I don't know, but if I hear people saying so in the next few days I sure as heck won't immediately dismiss them.

What's been annoying me is the attitude in the press (& the Irish Examiner is pretty representative of what I've seen in the Irish & British press this morning) that seems to say, "Sure he may have molested boys, but (a) he had a tough childhood and (b) the music was sooo good that we can overlook his dark side." What? How many people would accept the following in a newspaper editorial: "Yes the allegations of child abuse were unseemly, but he was a gifted priest and ..."?

The Jackson Will

I remember reading something early this year about Michael Jackson leaving the Beatles songs to Paul McCartney in his will. My thought was, "So what? He's about 15 years younger than McCartney. McCartney will never get those songs back." Well, just goes to show that you never know. Looks like McCartney will soon be able to sing Hey Jude without having to send a small check to Neverland (or wherever it was recently).

2010 World Cup

One thing that that's instructive about the Confederations Cup is that the weather may be about as favorable to an Irish team as they'll ever get at a World Cup. They won't have to worry about wilting in the heat the way they did in America in 1994 and in Korea in 2002.

Also, someone better do something about those annoying horns. I had to keep putting the volume on mute because of that drone.

It's not 1980

Of course I was rooting for America as I watched the second half of yesterday's Confederations Cup semi-final. It was great to see them win. Soon as it was over I just figured I'd check twitter to see what was being said and there were a lot of posts comparing the win with the 1980 Olympic hockey team's accomplishments. Today, George Vescey, who is old enough to know better, continues with that theme, although at least Vescey merely says this is the "second-biggest upset by an American team" in any sport.

First, there is no comparison with 1980. For it to come anywhere near 1980 you would need the following conditions:

1. a team comprised totally of amateurs;
2. the competition to be more a lot more meaningful (like the World Cup);
3. the whole nation riveted, watching and rooting for the guys wearing USA on their chest;
4. a semifinal match-up with the world's greatest national team and that team to just happen to be from America's primary rival on the world stage (the USSR).

Is this even the "second-biggest upset by an American team" as Vescey contends? Well, of course, America isn't as involved in the sports that feature international competitions so maybe it is. However, I would say that the following are bigger upsets (given the stakes and the competition);

• 1-0 win over England in the 1950 World Cup;
• 1960 Olympic hockey gold.

I think I would probably say that the win over Portugal in the 2002 World Cup was bigger and also, maybe, the 1996 win over Canada in the final of the World Cup of Hockey, although that wasn't really much of an upset seeing as America had great players at the time. Still, this was the Confederations Cup and, well, let's face it it's not that prestigious a tournament and the fact that the stadiums are only half full tells a big part of the story.

The 1911 Census

I know there are a lot of people over 60 in this country who are resistant to the internet, but if there's one sure-fire way to get them interested in the web it's the 1911 census. The archives of nine counties are now online and the other 23 counties will be added by the end of this summer.

I've seen the reaction a few times already. It isn't just the raw data that's interesting, but the fact that you can view the actual form that was filled in back in April 1911. When today's elderly person sees a parent's name and, often, a grandparent's hand-writing they're hooked.

Public libraries should advertise the 1911 census on the internet and encourage older people to try searching the records.

Ads on the jerseys

American sports teams are testing the water, to see how people respond to ads on the uniforms.It goes without saying that I'm 100% opposed to this development. The jerseys don't need ads. Ads on the outfield walls is bad enough.

Starting this summer the NFL is going to try out small ads on the sleeves. On their practice jerseys only. {For now.}

Okay, so I hate that idea, but sports continually adopt ideas I hate. (And, once, dropped a bad idea -- artificial turf is nearly completely gone from baseball. Yahoo!)

I know the ads on the NFL jerseys will be small, but I doubt they'll remain small. What use would that be? I expect they'll gradually grow to European soccer proportions, which I think would be a mistake.

European soccer clubs have sacrificed their own brand development potential with the ads on the jerseys. I gotta figure that's why you don't see Manchester United tee shirts, etc Unless it's an official team shirt or shorts or socks - whatever - you don't see it. The sponsor's logo is the real visible trademark. For example, the Manchester United crest is so dwarfed by the advertiser's logo that it's insignificant. AIG could probably sell red tee shirts that would satisfy Manchester United fans.

I know that there is an awful lot of Manchester United merchandise available, but I still think their branding takes a hit with that big AIG in the middle of their jersey. I mean, who wants to be associated with AIG these days? (Or Citibank - don't talk to me about the Mets' new home!)

Another reason I don't do direct debits

Bord Gais admitted last night that the banking details of 75,000 people were on a laptop that has been stolen. The information wasn't encrypted. Typical.

The customers affected are those who switched from ESB to Bord Gais for their electricity supply. That includes me. Oh yeah, as a by the way, the information has been in criminal hands since "last Friday week" (June 5? not sure). Hey, at least they only made us wait two weeks before telling us, right?

Customers should be entitled to sue BG for this sort of negligence. They should be compensated for the aggravation and, yes, the worry over something that has arisen because "it's not that big a deal" is the prevailing attitude at Bord Gais (and the banks too. Remember?). What price will BG pay for this? Not much to be honest. It's a bit of a PR headache right now, but that will pass quickly. Meanwhile all 75,000 customers now have to wonder if their bank details are in the hands of people who could use them for their own criminal ends.

Fortunately I didn't sign up for direct debit with BG so they don't have my bank details. And, now, fortunately, neither do the criminals. Just another reason why signing up for direct debit is a bad idea: you're giving important information to people who simply don't care enough to take care of it.

Sports obsession pays off

I knew that following sports wasn't a waste of time. Yesterday my daughter, who is a keen sports fan, got a bit of an advantage on her Leaving Cert Spanish exam thanks to her sports knowledge. The listening part of the test was all about Spanish tennis star Rafael Nadal. She had all the answers written down before they even started the playing the short recorded biography of Nadal.

Posters between Bray & Dublin

Driving into Dublin last night I was surprised by how many posters were still up a full week after the vote. I thought there was some form of fine for posters that were not removed after seven days following the election.

I also noticed that most of the posters were Sinn Fein posters, particularly Mary Lou McDonald. Is it because they handle the posters differently - who puts up/takes down posters; - or is the party sort of demoralized by McDonald's defeat. Just curious.

Time for license fee cut

RTE is looking for an increase in the license fee because their ad revenue is falling, according to the Irish Examiner. This is despite the fact that the license fee is supposed to be linked to inflation, which means the license fee should be cut.

The Examiner has another story saying that the cost of living has fallen by 4.7% over the last year. Therefore we should be getting a €8 cut in the cost of our television license. There is no argument for anything other than reduction in the license fee. And the government should tell RTE to drop dead.

Will Europe miss Bush?

I don't want to claim any special insight into the views of European governments just because I live in Europe, but I gotta say I kind of doubt Ralph Peters has it right with his column today. Peter says that "[a] big chill has hit the trans-Atlantic atmosphere," referring to relations between the Obama administration and various European governments.

Peters says that during his trip to Europe last week Obama "brushed off Sarkozy", looked like he had just been divorced from Angela Merkel and treated Gordon Brown as if the British had "just burned the White House -- or a Kenyan village..." Peters says America's relations with Europe were better in Bush's second term than they are now.

Peters finishes up saying that Obama's upbringing was in the third world and that he just has it in for Europe on a personal level. Peters believes that, "Europe is going to miss George W. Bush."

I haven't got that sense at all. Maybe someday Europeans will turn on Obama, but we're a long, long way from that. I suspect that goes for the leaders too. However, I would imagine that (a) some of the European leaders are a bit miffed at Obama's popularity in their countries and (b) I'm pretty sure Merkel is none too happy with the way the administration and the fed are treating the dollar.

Whither ESPN America?

It looks like Setanta Sports is on its way out. The company's founders - need to raise £100m immediately or the company will go into administration. STV reported at 6:00 that Setanta would go off the air tonight. Setanta has since denied that, but the Guardian's web site says
that the company has stopped taking subscriptions and that the "wind down has begun."

Now what makes this really important to me is that I get my American sports fix through a subscription to Setanta. Setanta set up the North American Sports Network six years ago and sold it to ESPN last year, but ESPN America (as NASN is now known) is still sold through the Setanta pack. So, my question is, what happens to ESPNA if (when) Setanta vanishes?

Nobody would take Irish & Polish

I know, I know. The Leaving Cert is on my brain. It's hard to believe how much your child's Leaving Cert takes over your life. Your whole family's life.

At least I'm gaining some insight into another aspect of Irish life. Today I found out that the Polish exam was scheduled for the same time as Irish.

I guess the state assumes that all the Polish students here either came after they were 12 and, thus, can opt out of Irish or that they haven't reached Leaving Cert age yet. Well, I heard about one poor boy who has to do his Polish exam after his Irish. And those two are following a morning of Math. That makes about nine hours of exams this kid has to endure today and he has to be ready for another 3'20" of Irish in the morning. It seems so cruel and unnecessary.

The number of kids doing Polish and Irish is only going to rise rapidly in the coming years. Same goes for all the other E. European languages. Would be a good idea to consider the possibility that some children are going to need to take both Irish and Polish exams and set schedule accordingly.

The death of Grasshopper

Is it true that David Carradine was best known for the Kill Bill movies? To me he was, and always will be, Caine or Grasshopper.

"When you can walk the rice paper ..."

I'm not "the quality"

Our local gentry are getting special treatment at the polling booth tomorrow, according to the local free sheet the Wicklow Times. Apparently those who live on the Kilruddery Estate, including Lord & Lady Meath will have their own special polling station. The Wicklow Times says that Lord & Lady Meath and the other 28 or so people who live on the estate - extended family - have their own polling station and when they're done voting that box is opened in private, unlike all the other boxes.

Actually it's not quite as bad as that sounds. The Meaths' little place lies just outside the town boundaries, so they don't get to vote in the local town election. That explains the separate polling station. And there is a law that says any box containing fewer than 50 votes must be opened in private.

So disappointing. I was looking forward to being outraged.

Unquiet Man

Just to let you know, I'm also blogging here. These posts are really aimed more at an American audience.

Rescheduling the English exam

One more thing about the rescheduled English test: why couldn't they have simply put the Engineering test on this morning and the English test this afternoon? The Engineering students were already facing a full day, all that would have been different would have been the order of their tests. And, if the English test was set for 3:00, say, the state could have ensured that every school received the contingency papers by then.

Anyway, enough of the Leaving Cert. I'm sick of it.

Leaving Cert fiasco

If you don't really know the Leaving Cert this will seem like a minor detail. If you know the Leaving, but aren't involved in this year's exams you'll at least understand why it's big news. However, if you're in my boat, you'll know that this is really, really big. Canceling tomorrow's English paper can really throw a student for a loop. The more hard wired to planning your student is, the more this could be a game-changer.

The state says that they couldn't do anything other than cancel it because they couldn't get the contingency paper to all the schools on time. Yet every school is online now, right? Couldn't they have simply put the contingency paper online at 9:30 or whatever and let the students work from that?

I don't know if that would have worked, but postponing the exam until Saturday is no better. Maybe there was no viable alternative. This sure is one massive foul-up.

The Church was the cheaper option

Was the state "supine"? This is a question that's been nagging at me for a few days. Was the state cowed by the Catholic Church? Was that why there was all that abuse in Church run institutions?

Mary Rafferty says it was.

Today, the Government faces a clear choice: will it continue its supine and cowed attitude – so disastrous in the past for the children of Ireland – or will it at last on our behalf stand up to those who have bullied and intimidated us all for so long?

Well, this partial sentence taken from a letter from Department of Education (Vol I, Ch. 16) makes me think that, perhaps, that it wasn't just a matter of the Church bullying and intimidating the forces of the state^*.

… it is a general experience that for an institution of the kind management by a religious order is more economical than lay management …

The state was using the Church for its own ends. It was cheaper to outsource the management of the industrial schools, etc. to the Catholic Church than it was for the state to provide them.

^*Really that is a ridiculous notion. As if the Church had more power than the state. The Church's power derived solely from the devotion of the people of this Republic. The state had an army and the police. The Church had men in cassocks and women in habits.

E-Day comes before D-Day

I never heard of The Messenger (not to be confused with the Sacred Heart Messenger) until yesterday when I received a copy of the Wicklow Election Guide '09 through my door. The Messenger is a local paper for Gorey in Wexford and Arklow in Wicklow.

Anyway ...

The first sentence of the introduction to their guide is

D-Day will be the 5th of June once again, but this year they won't be hitting the beaches, they'll be prowling the polling stations, as candidates ....

Oops. D-Day was the 6th of June (and yeah, I know it was originally supposed to be the 5th, but in the end it wasn't.)

Regardless, the guide is kind of useful. It would have been a whole lot more useful if it had spelled out where the various candidates differ. From what I can tell they all want the same things. Or they tell you nothing of what they would do if elected. Two or three candidates have called to the door and I couldn't tell you one thing that any of them said that wasn't said by the others. 'Vote for me, I live nearby' is a summary of what they all seem to have to say.

Fr. Flanagan mentioned in the Ryan Commission Report

Where have I been? Well, I've been doing a lot of other things, most of which are of no interest here. Today I spent most of the afternoon sitting in the backyard simply enjoying the weather.

I have written a few things that were published on Irish Central. This one on the Ryan Commission on Institutional Child Abuse might be of interest.

I really had the sense that those who composed the Ryan Report didn't really understand how well known Fr. Flanagan was and how highly regarded he was - among all Americans and not just Catholics. If the Ryan Commission did understand who Fr. Flanagan was they seriously downplayed the significance of the state's decision to ignore and denigrate him.

Best player in the world

As most of you know, I don't claim any real knowledge of soccer. Still, I was surprised by this article in today's NY Times. I had thought the idea that Ronaldo was the best player in the world was mostly marketing hype that few took seriously. Is there a real debate as to who is better, Ronaldo or Messi?

Partying like it's 1962 (again)

The Mets lost last night. Hardly earth-shattering news, but the manner of their defeat is pretty shocking. They lost because they played like they were a Little League team playing an early spring training game.

They made numerous errors in the field - dropping balls, throwing them away, that sort of thing - they failed to do simple things with the bat - like bunting (letting the ball hit gently off the bat) - and in a crucial situation, when it looked like they were going to escape with an undeserved victory, one of their professional players, a guy making $2.8m a year, failed to touch third base on his way home to score the winning (okay, go ahead) run in extra innings. And he was under no pressure to make it home as there was no hope of a play on him.

Honestly, there isn't a Little League coach in America who wouldn't have been embarrassed by such a display. It was as if the Mets channeled their inner '62 Mets. The Mets were in their first year and they are renowned for being the worst team to ever play in the major leagues.

The only saving grace as far as I'm concerned is that I only had to endure the audio description on delay this morning. I can't imagine how I'd have felt if I was in New York and stayed up til 1am to watch that debacle.

"Conclusive scientific evidence" that some people are nuts

The people of Newcastle, Co. Down can, apparently, enjoy free WiFi in at least part of the town. And not everyone is happy about this (& I'm not talking about disgruntled commercial internet providers, whose grudge I could well understand).

No, the Newcastle Sustainable Community Planning Forum organized a public meeting on the issue.

According to a NSPCF spokes-woman, the outcome of the meeting was an overwhelming majority vote for the cessation of the pilot operation until ‘conclusive scientific evidence of safety is established’, a request that Down Council allow a NSCPF presentation on the health risks associated with Wi-Fi, and that councillors be urged to review their decision.

I really don't know what to say. "Conclusive scientific evidence of safety?" I mean, do any of those people ever go swimming because I bet there is no "conclusive scientific evidence" that swimming is safe. Or eating meat. Or walking along the road. Or climbing a wall. Or ... You get the idea.

Newstalk grows up

Two years ago I said that I was abandoning Newstalk's morning and afternoon shows because they were too juvenile, particularly the morning show. I might return now that they've signed Ivan Yates to co-host the show (& I wouldn't object if Claire Byrne was quietly dropped too). I don't know what Yates is like on radio, but his columns are fantastic. I don't remember thinking so highly of him when he was in Fine Gael, but he must be pretty determined to remain outside politics at this stage because he's got a lot more presence than anyone in that party - include George Lee.

Now looking at the sun

I'm sure I've mentioned that I'm something of a climate change skeptic. I'm more than willing to accept that the climate's changing because I doubt it's ever been static. I'm also happy to say that the I can see the logic of the whole idea that what man is up to may affect the climate. What turns me off is that the science is so dependent on computer modeling and, well, why should I believe that those who have designed the models are any better at their job than those who designed the system that gave us derivatives and mortaged-backed securities and the rest of that mess.

Okay, maybe that's a cheap shot, but the problems in the financial world were more than partly caused by too many young techno-heads developing all sorts of products that the banking professionals never fully understood, never really grasped that a couple of key assumptions were faulty. Why should I assume that climatologists haven't made a similar error?

The whole thing just seems to me to be too complex for modeling, particularly when science is only now having to check their warming expectations with a less active sun.

Computer models suggest that of the 0.5C increase in global average temperatures over the past 30 years, only 10-20 per cent of the temperature variations observed were down to the Sun, although some said it was 50 per cent.

But around the turn of the century things started to change. Within a few years of the Sun’s activity starting to decline, the rise in the Earth’s temperature began to slow and has now been constant since the turn of the century. This was at the same time that the levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide carried on rising. So, is the Sun’s quietness responsible for the tail-off in global warming and if not, what is?

… If the Earth cools under a quiet Sun, then it may be an indication that the increase in the Sun’s activity since the Little Ice Age has been the dominant factor in global temperature rises. That would also mean that we have overestimated the sensitivity of the Earth’s atmosphere to an increase of carbon dioxide from the pre-industrial three parts per 10,000 by volume to today’s four parts per 10,000. Or the sun could compete with global warming, holding it back for a while. For now, all scientists can do, along with the rest of us, is to watch and wait.

Pack up your troubles ...

I told someone during the week that the best bit of good news we've had in a while was the ESRI's gloomier than thou forecast. To my mind, the ESRI is always the last to forecast a downward or an upward swing. They basically missed the Celtic Tiger - I think it was two years after the phrase "Celtic Tiger" was invented before the ESRI took its first tentative steps along the "there may be good days ahead" path.

So, this week when they went for the full throttle depression-level forecast I figured we'd hit bottom. And, the figures published yesterday that indicate a very slight possible change in our fortunes may be the beginning of the ESRi affect.

Parking at the airport

By the way, it's gotten much cheaper to park at Dublin Airport. QuickPark is now charging €5 per day , down from €7.50 and the DAA is charging €4.50 for long-term parking (if you book online).

For the love of God, no

I don't think we need to strengthen the blasphemy laws in Ireland. I think anyone who feels strongly will not be so unsettled by the wild rantings of some loon or supposed comic to want to see prosecutions.

“Blasphemous matter” is defined as matter “that is grossly abusive or insulting in relation to matters held sacred by any religion, thereby causing outrage among a substantial number of the adherents of that religion; and he or she intends, by the publication of the matter concerned, to cause such outrage.”

Well, this would be an invitation for cranks and the eternally offended to waste all sorts of police time and resources on nothing. Honestly, I sometimes have a hard time reconciling our Christian devotion to the martyrs with our over-sensitive prickly skin nowadays. It seems to me that enduring a disrespectful joke or even some ugly bigotry is not on a par with getting thrown into the ring with a hungry lion.

We don't need blasphemy laws. We need to toughen up, turn the other cheek and – if you want, I guess – boycott and petition. Oh yeah, and pray for the one who offends you. (I often wonder if the Catholic League in New York issued a press release calling on all Catholics to pray for whoever is being offensive if that wouldn't be more effective than expressing outrage.)

And, given all that's going on in Europe at the moment, this is exactly the wrong time to be introducing this legislation. Publications that want to reproduce the Danish cartoons should be entitled to do so. Booksellers who want to sell The Satanic Verses should be able to without fear of prosecution (or worse, of course).

Saturday at the airport

Obviously I'm not surprised by all the reports that air travel is down, but still I was taken aback by how quiet Dublin Airport was this past Saturday. A year ago I'd have seen loads of men - mostly men - going to soccer games in England, and of course others going wherever. But on Saturday the airport was very quiet. I didn't see many people heading over to see the big clubs. Maybe it was the flight schedules and I missed them or maybe the games were not easy to get to or whatever, but the number of Manchester United, Liverpool & Chelsea fans I saw was way down on what I anticipated.

Craven Cottage

On Saturday I spent a few hours at Craven Cottage in London watching Fulham FC against Stoke City. I'm not a huge soccer fan and I heard the game described as "terrible" and "dour," but I enjoyed it. There are things that I really liked about how soccer fans are treated that I wish baseball would incorporate.

First, no loud music. A few tunes before kick-off, but nothing else and even that music was far from the ear-shattering volume favored by the Mets (at Shea, not sure about the new place).

Second, it was warm(ish) on Saturday and I was sitting directly in the sun (in the Johnny Haynes Stand). I had to buy some water. Went to the counter expecting to be fleeced and was pleasantly surprised to learn that my 2 bottles of water only set me back £3 (about $4.40). The same two bottles of water will set you back $7.50 at Citi Field (and $10!! at the new Yankee Stadium). Later I bought a hot dog, fries and soda (No, not for me!) for £5.50 ($8). Don't know what that might cost at Citi Field, but I doubt I'd have much change left from my twenty.

Next, the Mets tore down Shea Stadium (and the Yankees Yankee Stadium) because the facilities were old, etc. I don't know how the regulars at Craven Cottage feel, but I loved the old feel to the place. The wooden benches, the brick walls and narrow passageways under the stand. My only complaint is the bathrooms were a little too basic for my delicate American sensibilities.

I would recommend that any American who wants to see an EPL game and has time in London find their way to Craven Cottage. It's not hard to get to and tickets aren't as difficult to get as those to see any of the big name clubs. (And, I have to say, I was far from the only American at the game. I couldn't get over how many Yanks were there. There were a number sitting in the area around where I was.)

And, also good was the final score: Fulham 1 Stoke City 0. My new favorite club (I've been clubless since Wimbledon abandoned South London).

Mullen & the wedding invite

No, I wasn't expecting an invite to the former Ambassador's wedding in Celbridge over the weekend. If he wasn't inclined to ask me over for a bite on Thanksgiving Day or to crack open a beer or two on Super Bowl Sunday I hardly expected Tom Foley to invite me to his and his new bride's big day.

Good luck, Mr. Ambassador, and if you happen to run into Dan Rooney on your travels you could lie and tell him that we met regularly and that I'm great company.

What I want to say about Ambassador Foley's wedding is what was Larry Mullen doing there? Back in December he said he "cringes" when he sees Bono hanging around with the two "war criminals" George Bush & Tony Blair. Well, if George Bush is a "war criminal" why would you be friendly with his appointed representative in Ireland? I could be wrong, but I kind of doubt that Mullen was a friend of Foley's before Foley took up his post here, which was long after the 2003 Iraq War.

Night Court

I was called for jury duty recently. I wouldn't have minded doing it, but I couldn't. I work for myself and simply could not afford to take the time out. I wrote asking to be excused and I was. Life when you're self-employed.

That self-employed people cannot take the time to serve on juries is obvious, but what if the numbers who are self-employed starts to rise rapidly. David McWilliams says the recovery will be "freelance driven, and not employee driven," that people will take work where they see opportunities, mostly on a temporary basis. I agree, but if we're going to be a nation of freelancers then our juries are going to suffer.

Juries will be composed of the unemployed, the occasional remaining employee in a big company and retired people. Nobody else will be able to afford to serve. If we want a jury of peers it seems to me we might have to change the way the jury trial system works. For a starter, we should have evening and night trials. Being at court for 4pm is a lot less of a problem than being there at 9am.

Did Grobbelaar throw the 'game'

Last night - for reasons that even I can't explain - I found myself watching the last few minutes of Hell's Kitchen. I listened to former Liverpool goalie Bruce Grobbelaar talking about how he wanted to be 'fired' because he wanted to get back to his wife. It sounded great, especially to the women who he was leaving behind as contestants. They were very emotional at hearing his words.

Then a minute or two later I heard him being interviewed and the woman from the BBC innocently dropped in that Gobbelaar was "the bookies' favorite." I thought to myself, "Hmm. Wasn't Grobbelaar once in a bit of hot water over accusations that he had "fixed" matches back in the early 90s? Is it possible that Bruce had a wager on someone other than himself to win Hell's Kitchen? Is it possible he 'fixed the match'?"

I doubt he did, but I was laughing at the thought of it. He actually came across as a really nice guy.

On Your Feet!

Okay, that's enough laying around doin' nuttin. Time to get this going again.

MLB.com - awful

MLB.com. Whoever runs that has to be among the dumbest people in business anywhere.

For reasons that I can't fathom, they decided that we needed an "upgrade" to the audio player that has worked just great the past 4 years (or more - can't remember). I don't know what we needed upgraded because basically all us Gameday Audio subscribers wanted was what we had. We could listen to the games when they were live or we could listen to the games from the "archive", which meant any game that was over for at least 45 minutes.

That is how I listen. I tune in first thing in the morning to hear the previous night's Met game. Until this season.

Now we have an "upgraded player" that works - sometimes - that's missing the few features that were useful (like pause if you have to go to the bathroom & fast forward to skip the ads) and has somehow delayed the archiving of the games so that what used to take 45 minutes now takes more than 8 hours.

I used to believe that MLB.com had one of the most successful online subscription businesses going, but this is really stupid. I had considered forking out a lot extra for online t.v., but the way they've treated their customers this year has turned me off the idea. In fact, since I can't listen to the games in the morning as I used to I'm not sure I'll bother with the audio subscription.

Cut CSPE

Budget cuts may mean that secondary schools will have to reduce the number of courses they can offer. Here's a suggestion: scrap CSPE. It is almost entirely propaganda and a joke. It's demise would save money and save students from learning a lot of gar-baage.

I'm sure there are other course that could be cut with zero effect on students' education (actually, cutting stuff like CSPE will be a net gain to students). Will have to think about it.

Bailout Budget

There were all sorts of names applied to yesterday's budget. It was called a mini-budget, a supplemental budget, I even saw "crisis" budget once or twice. It should have been called the "bailout" budget because that's what it was. We're now being asked to bailout the government for its profligacy. There is no other way to see this.

If Brian Cowen and his ministers had any honor at all, they'd have called an election after delivering the budget. They deserve to be unemployed just as surely as any bank boss that they've derided recently. I still can't get over the chutzpah of Lenihan basically calling for Michael Fingleton's head while taking no responsibility on himself (or the Taoiseach, in particular) for the current state of the public finances.

If Brian Cowen was a manager of a sports team he'd have been ousted long ago. But, not only is he holding on to his job, but he's going to make sure that we pay for his mistakes.

Sisters make you happy?

Hmm. What to make of this? "Sisters spread happiness while brothers breed distress, experts believe." Or this? "Having a sister makes you happier and more optimistic, say psychologists."

I grew up without sisters. Three brothers, but no sisters. Well, my sister was born when I was half way through my freshman year in college, so I didn't really "grow up" with her. And, apparently this makes it hard for me to cope with my problems. Could be true. I'm still not coping with the Mets of '06, '07 & '08, but like leaves on a tree I can't help returning in the spring. More problems in '09, undoubtedly and I'll probably still have trouble coping.

My vote counts!

The votes are counted and Tedisco 59 votes behind in the race to fill the House seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand, who's gone to the Senate, but it's not over yet because they have to count the absentee ballots. My vote is one of those.

{I can't believe that there are at least 5,000 absentee ballots to be counted. Sounds like a lot to me.}

Heading for a bankruptcy hat trick

I couldn't find the article online, but there are a couple of sentences that say so much about our banking problems. It's a long piece from this week's Sunday Times on property developer, Paddy Kelly.

Last week Kelly told a Commercial Court that he was considering bankruptcy, but here are the two sentences that caught my eye.

Through various partnerships, project companies and investment vehicles in Ireland, Europe and America, it is widely estimated that Kelly owes Anglo Irish Bank alone in excess of €700m. The Co. Laois-born developer, who has twice gone bust in the past, says that he simply got tired of trying to hide his difficulties and the massive problems within the Irish property sector.

Anything there catch your eye? How 'bout ... twice gone bust in the past?

I know a little bit about banking and I know a little bit about risk. And, to my mind, someone who has twice gone bust in the past might be just a little too risky to lend anything more than, I don't know, €250m or so? Honestly, it's just so stupid.

Oh yeah, don't miss that little "alone" in there. The Sunday Times is leaving open the question of whether Kelly owes money to any of the other banks. Uggh.

Geithner did it

I like this from the Sydney Morning Herald. Tim Geithner is the cause. He's the one who started the ball rolling towards the financial meltdown we're experiencing now. It all goes back to how he with the IMF dealt with Indonesia's problems (and , according to Australia's former Prime Minister, Paul Keating.

China, in particular, drew hard conclusions from the IMF's mishandling of the Asian crisis. It decided that it would never allow itself to be dependent on the IMF, or the US, or the West generally, for its international solvency. Instead, it would build the biggest war chest the world had ever seen.

Keating continued: "This has all been noted inside the State Council of China and by the Politburo. And it's one of the reasons, perhaps the principal reason, why convertibility of the renminbi remains off the agenda for China, and it's why through a series of exchange-rate interventions each day that they've built these massive reserves.

Keating went on to argue that, by frightening the Chinese into building their vast $US2 trillion foreign reserves, Geithner was responsible for the build-up of tremendous imbalance in the world financial system. This imbalance, in turn, according to Keating, contributed to the global financial crisis which has since devastated the world economy.

China invested most of its reserves in US debt markets. Keating again: "So we have this massive recycling of funds into the system by [the former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan] Greenspan's monetary policy so even if you are greedy Dick Fuld [the former head of the collapsed investment bank Lehman Brothers] or you are hopeless Charles Prince at Citibank, you're being told there's an endless supply of money at a low interest rate and no inflation. So of course the system geared up to spend it.

"That is the fundamental cause of the problem - the imbalance is the fundamental cause."

Them cats don't bounce

"Dead Cat Bounce." Who didn't love that phrase the first time you heard it. It could have been just about anything - 'Lump Of Wood Bounce', for example - but it's "Dead Cat Bounce." It really sums it all up.

So, that's the big question of the day/week. Is the market really rebounding or is this just a "dead cat bounce." I guess we won't know for a while, but if you read this it'll be more than the fate of the aforementioned cat that will worry you.

Canadians must face “the very real possibility that not only could the systemic global credit crisis and the spreading U.S. balance-sheet recession lead to a lost decade or worse for the global economy,” predicted veteran analyst William Macdonald in his written submission, “it could also lead to the breakdown of the globalization project itself.”

And, it goes without saying that where you read "Candaians" you can substitute whatever nationality you like (other than Zimbabwean, I guess).

The essence of the article from the Globe and Mail is that it's possible that what President Obama is trying to do is
wrong.

Throwing billions at trying to remove and resell the toxic assets that banks accumulated is a waste of time, because those assets are worthless and should be written off.

Worse, according to some, Mr. Obama's $3.6-trillion budget, with its emphasis on health care, education and energy reform, wastes money that is needed to combat the coming depression. It robs the economy of future growth by piling on debt.

Gulp. You simply cannot put the day of reckoning off forever. Too much many times the government intervened to prevent a recession.

Recessions are the medicine you hate. They may taste bad, but they're a lot better than waiting for some vital organ to give up the ghost leaving you needing major surgery and a long convalescence.

The NY 20th

The Department of Justice says that Governor Paterson didn't allow enough time for absentee and military voters to vote in the special election to be held on March 31. Well, if the feds say so, but I got my ballot application form, sent it off, got my ballot and sent that off. All well before the March 31 deadline.

One vote in the Tedisco column. Come on, Jim. The fightback starts in the suburbs of Albany. {And, I don't want to hear anything about all the mistakes Tedisco has made since the campaign started. Things are bad enough already.}

Next stop Aviva Stadium - NOT

Good for the MTA. That's the Metropolitan Transit Authority, New York's public transport body. The MTA is refusing to use Citigroup's name on the subway stop where the Mets' new stadium - Citi Field - is. The station used to be known as Willets Point/Shea Stadium, but now the stop will be Mets/Willets Point. (Not sure why Willents Point got bumped to 2nd place.)

The MTA wanted to be paid for advertising Citigroup, but the more or less bankrupt advertisement for mismanagement said 'No'. Okay. So the MTA said 'No' to their name on the subway stop and all those subway maps, etc.

I hope the Dublin public transport authorities have the same sense. The new rugby/soccer stadium going up where the old Lansdowne Road stadium was will be known as Aviva Stadium. Fine, but the DART stop there better not use the name Aviva unless Aviva is paying for it. Otherwise, stick with Lansdowne Road.

"Day of Action"

I bet a lot of the union leaders would count themselves among those people who thought George Bush was stupid. Well, no decision that Bush made as President is as obviously poorly thought out - okay, stupid - as the decision to hold a one day strike this Monday. I'm not saying that the public sector unions don't have a right to be annoyed, angry, fed up, whatever, but they have got to just suck it up and carry on.

The unions will reap a whirlwind if they strike next week. There is zero sympathy for the unions from non-union members and even within the unions, from what I've heard, there are quite a few members who think this is idiotic and have no sympathy with their cause.

Quantitatively killing us

Can we live with an exchange rate of €=$1.60? Can we live with € > £? I don't know, but if this guy quoted in the NY Times is right we will find out.

Jean-Michel Six, chief European economist at Standard & Poor’s, forecasts that the euro will push through $1.60 by the end of September and pass the parity level against the pound about the same time.

The funny thing is, I'm not a fan of this "quantitative easing". They might just as well call it "debasing the dollar" (or pound).

Doesn't matter, though. Right now it's much more attractive to an American company to look at the UK for their investment and it's more attractive for shoppers from here to head over the border for their clothes, food, cigarettes, alcohol, etc. How much more attractive will it be when the euro hits $1.60 and the pound is worth less than €1. We're in a bind.

Prompted into a blunder

It was a light moment and to the Taoiseach's credit he apparently was quick to respond in a way that made what could have been simply embarrassing into a moment of endearment. On Tuesday evening in the White House he stepped up to the podium and started reading the speech off the teleprompter. Only it wasn't Brian Cowen's speech, but President Obama's.

Lise Hand says it was the Taoiseach having his "blond moment". And, I guess it is, but maybe the blame really lies with the person who was responsible for the teleprompter? And, maybe, some blame should go to President Obama, who apparently cannot speak without a prompt.

Yup, although it has gone unremarked in the Irish media, President Obama cannot speak without the teleprompter. I didn't know this until I read this a week or so ago.

Obama’s reliance on the teleprompter is unusual — not only because he is famous for his oratory, but because no other president has used one so consistently and at so many events, large and small.

… But be it extra precaution, style or a mental crutch, Obama has shown in the past that he needs the teleprompter.

… "He uses them to death," a television crewmember who also covered the White House under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush said of the teleprompter. "The problem is, he never looks at you. He’s looking left, right, left, right — not at the camera. It’s almost like he’s not making eye contact with the American people."

Obviously it's not a big issue - although you just know how the press would have reacted if President Bush had such a dependency - but it's a little weird.

So, maybe Brian Cowen would have been happier if he didn't have the teleprompter in front of him the other evening. I don't know, but his response when he realized what he'd done was excellent.

Brian looked around sheepishly to where President Obama was seated. "That's your speech!" he blurted, clearly morto as he realised that he was reading from the wrong script on the autocue.

… He turned to his host and looked at him sternly. "Who said these were idiot-proof?" he deadpanned.

Dear Mr. Ambassador ...

To Ambassador Dan Rooney,

Your predecessor snubbed me annually, so I'm getting my yearly plea in early. How about you, me, a turkey leg or two and a few beers as we watch football next Thanksgiving in your new house? I don't even mind if you have a few others over. I'm not selfish.

I will tell you this about the recently departed Mr. Foley, however. He seems to have done a great job and a great service to you, Ambassador Rooney, with his efforts at redecorating the place if the NY Times is to be believed. Still, what good was all that redecorating if I never got to see the house?

I eagerly await your reply.

Yours sincerely,

Irish Eagle

3.14159265....

It's funny now, but there was a time in my life when Pi was as commonplace to me as just about any other word I used. As a concept, it was much more familiar to me than worrying about the gas or electric bill, that's for sure.

Pi. It came up all the time. For the better part of, what?, 8 years of my life? Pi.

Pi = 3.1416

So what happened? Why do I almost never even think about Pi these days? Why does Pi not come up in my daily discussions - unless I'm helping with the homework - as it did all the time when I was 20? I don't think I could have imagined a life without Pi when I was a student, yet it has hardly featured post-graduation. When I'm talking with friends or people I work with nobody ever says, "You forgot to multiply it by Pi" or some such. Never.

So, even though it's equally stupid and geeky, I love that today's Pi Day because it's March 14 on the calendar. Get it? Well, of course you do, if you write the dates as Americans do - 3-14. Europeans will never have their own Pi Day, but I figure those who want to can join in today's "celebration".

Now, what's the formula for the volume of a cone?

The new "Oranje"

I watch the World Baseball Classic when I can even though it's not very good baseball and I don't care who wins so long as no Mets get hurt. The baseball's not that good because the players are not even in early season shape, let alone at their best. They're just getting stretched out for the long season ahead. And baseball's not really suited to the quick lose and you're out format that the WBC employs.

Still, despite all that, it's hard not to be stunned by what the Dutch have accomplished this week. Yesterday they beat the Dominican Republic for the second time in 3 days. If this were any other sport it would not be worth mentioning, but baseball is hardly a big deal in Holland and in the DR it's everything. Other than America, the Dominican Republic probably has the most superstars in the game.

Het is een wonder

I'm tempted

I hate reality t.v. shows. I don't care what they are, I can't stand them. Except ...

I love Feirm Factor. And Feirm Factor is looking for people for the next series. Ohhh. The temptation.

I know, I know, they're looking for farmers, but I figure I can get around that minor obstacle. So tempting.

The War on Drugs and Mexico

Pat Buchanan - yep, that Pat Buchanan - makes the case for legalizing narcotics. He's not happy about it, but he says it's either that or America (& Mexico, presumably) will have to start killing the suppliers and users in order to win the war on drugs.

Buchanan says that Mexico is losing its war on the drug cartels, who "field more than 100,000 foot soldiers", according to the Pentagon.

Add a collapsing global economy to a losing war with drug cartels, and Mexico is at grave risk of becoming a failed state, a narco-state, with a 2,000-mile border with the United States.

… Will we raise the white flag in the drug war, as well?

Which is the greater evil? Legalized narcotics for America's young or a failed state of 110,000 million on our southern border?

Could things really be that bad in Mexico?

Shiver me timbers!

I'm sure I'm not the only one who nearly passed out on catching sight of their most recent gas bill. It sure was a cold period - mid Dec through mid Feb - but still. My bill is up by nearly 60% over the same period last year. I used 33% more gas and the price has risen by over 20%. Even the number of kW/h per cubic meter of gas has gone up - and I can't explain that one.

That's it for heat this winter. Extra sweaters all around.

Tempting text tax

So, the Green Party suggests that one new tax that the government should impose is a 1c tax on all texts. Let me just say that if we must have new taxes - and I'm never a fan of new taxes - this one is about as good a tax as I can imagine.

Last night I went through my sent texts and found that I'd sent 27 since October 1. That works out roughly at around 80 texts per year. I can handle an extra 80c on my tax bill - and truth is, I might even cut back if the cost of texting is increased.

Of course the mobile phone companies are opposed and I don't blame them. Texting is a gold mine for them. They're already worried about people switching to Skype-enabled phones.

I can't really imagine all those teen texters cutting back if they have to pay an extra 1c per text, but maybe mommy & daddy will not increase their phone allowance. That might force teens to reduce the number of texts they send even if they don't want to. However, I can easily imagine that those same teens would put up with the lower quality Skype service if they can get free messaging and calls. Oh yeah, you can hear the painful screams coming from Vodafone and O2.

And, that's why I like the text tax more than most taxes. It might get rolled out just as texting dies out in favor of internet IM'ing via mobile phones. The government may never realize the €146m in revenues that they're expecting.

It's not all media hype

Twice this past weekend I found myself talking to two men - separate conversations - who believe that the "economic crisis" is mostly media hype. "They've got to sell papers", is what one of them told me.

I didn't know what to say. As someone who's fairly well convinced that we're heading down and fast I didn't know where to start. I simply let each of them say what they had in mind and walked on. I was shocked. I have no idea what these men do for a living, but I hope to God they're right. I'm sure they're wrong, but I hope they're right.

Today the news is full of the "mini-budget" or emergency budget or whatever you want to call it coming at the end of the month. I'm sure there's a reasonable explanation for waiting a month - having been about 4 months late realizing how bad things are - but it's lost to me. I can't understand why they don't just impose the tax hikes right now. What does the state gain from such a delay?

There's a small part of me wondering if there isn't something bigger being planned for the economy than 2c extra on the tax rates.

United States of Europe

That's a phrase that is used all the time to describe a dream of Euro-federalists. It's ironic to now realize that it's now becoming a reality, only it's happening on the western side of the Atlantic.

I was wrong about Barack Obama. I thought he'd be cautious. Wrong, wrong, wrong. He is not cautious.

He's rolling the dice on America's future in a way I would never have imagined. I thought he'd take a year to stabilize the banking and finance systems, get the economy cooking again and then look up and see what next. That's not what he's doing.

Nope. He's building the European dream - in America. Economically and socially it's a reconfiguring of America. I'm surprised and I don't much like it, but that's what you get when you lose.