Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Them cats don't bounce

"Dead Cat Bounce." Who didn't love that phrase the first time you heard it. It could have been just about anything - 'Lump Of Wood Bounce', for example - but it's "Dead Cat Bounce." It really sums it all up.

So, that's the big question of the day/week. Is the market really rebounding or is this just a "dead cat bounce." I guess we won't know for a while, but if you read this it'll be more than the fate of the aforementioned cat that will worry you.
Canadians must face “the very real possibility that not only could the systemic global credit crisis and the spreading U.S. balance-sheet recession lead to a lost decade or worse for the global economy,” predicted veteran analyst William Macdonald in his written submission, “it could also lead to the breakdown of the globalization project itself.”
And, it goes without saying that where you read "Candaians" you can substitute whatever nationality you like (other than Zimbabwean, I guess).

The essence of the article from the Globe and Mail is that it's possible that what President Obama is trying to do is
Throwing billions at trying to remove and resell the toxic assets that banks accumulated is a waste of time, because those assets are worthless and should be written off.

Worse, according to some, Mr. Obama's $3.6-trillion budget, with its emphasis on health care, education and energy reform, wastes money that is needed to combat the coming depression. It robs the economy of future growth by piling on debt.
Gulp. You simply cannot put the day of reckoning off forever. Too much many times the government intervened to prevent a recession.

Recessions are the medicine you hate. They may taste bad, but they're a lot better than waiting for some vital organ to give up the ghost leaving you needing major surgery and a long convalescence.