Last night I was watching Questions and Answers {req. RealPlayer} and a man in the audience asked the panel if the Iraqi vote "vindicated the Bush/Blair policy on Iraq". Obviously, I was with the panelist who answered unequivocally "yes", but then I started thinking about it.
I think this election, the new constitution for Iraq that this elected assembly will draft and the subsequent election for a new government later in the year should vindicate Bush & Blair in the eyes of Europeans (it won't, but it should). I fully expect that by this time next year the new Iraqi government will be exercising more sovereignty than Ireland has today. I believe the "occupation" will be nearing its burdensome end, although I also believe the US will negotiate for the right to keep some military bases in Iraq (much as they have in Germany, S. Korea & elsewhere today). That would be vindication.
However, it may or may not vindicate Bush & Blair in their own countries. Americans will applaud the new Iraq and take pride in their efforts to help the Iraqi people, but if there is any new terror attack on the US or if it seems that the terrorist threat has not been significantly reduced through the success in Iraq Americans may not feel that Bush has been vindicated. A thriving, free, democratic Iraq is a good side effect, but not the primary motive for the war that has now cost 1,500 American lives.
I believe the President is right and that this campaign is an important part of the war on terror, but if I had been skeptical about the security benefits of the Iraq war before the invasion, nothing that has happened so far, including Sunday's vote, would have changed my mind.
