Here he's talking about the reactions in Europe to the Istanbul bombings:
Mr Bush, however, is less likely to be interested in the various reactions in Europe than in reactions in the US, where he is now entering his campaign for re-election. The election is due almost exactly a year from now. There the recent news from Europe seems almost certain to be beneficial to Bush's campaign. This is principally because of the Jewish vote. In four States - New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco - the Jewish vote is so large that if the president holds that vote he is virtually certain to be re-elected.Leaving aside the obvious blunder that he's actually talking about cities here, even if we look at the three states he's referring to we can see the weakness of his argument. First, Los Angeles and San Francisco are both in California, the biggest state in the country and a big prize in electoral votes. New York is another big state. However, if Bush has a chance of winning either of those states next November then the election is already won. If the Democratic candidate cannot win those two states comfortably - both of which have huge Democrat majorities - then there's no hope for the Democrat to win the key swing states.
As to his reference to the Jewish vote, there is only one swing state where that vote is large enough to make a difference and where Bush's pro-Israel stance may help him - Florida. There is currently no reason to assume that this coming election will be any different than the previous one and Florida may well be the key. Bush's support for Israel and his support for governement funded prescriptions for retired people may well ensure his success in Florida.
Cruise O'Brien's knowledge of US politics seems to be based on the demographics and policies of the two parties circa 1970. I don't think he understands how much America has changed in the past 30+ years.
