Thursday, April 24, 2008

McCain's not a shoo-in

I think there's almost a growing consensus - especially among the gloomier, left-leaning media - over here that the Democrats are committing suicide and that McCain is a clear favorite to win in November. Now as much as I'd enjoy such a spectacle, I think there are a few little things that have been overlooked in the Irish media that should at least give pause for thought.

First, McCain is hardly loved by the Republican Party. In fact, I don't think it was mentioned here at all, but despite the fact that the nomination process as a contest is over 27% of the Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania opted for Paul or Huckabee rather than vote for McCain. That's a fairly significant level of discontent with the party's nominee, which could be a factor come November.

Second, the news media is only now moving to high definition broadcasts. This will not help McCain - especially against Obama. (HDTV doesn't do any favors for Hillary, apparently.) HDTV market penetration is still fairly small, but it's growing pretty rapidly. I doubt it will be as high as 50% of American households by year end, but even if it's a third that's a lot of homes where John McCain will suddenly look a lot older than he does at the moment.

And, those are two insignificant items compared with McCain's fairly orthodox conservative economic policies that should prove pretty unappealing come November and his staunch support for a war that is still pretty unpopular.

So, it's too early for all the members of the Democrat-loving Irish media to get too down. I suppose it's experience that has taught them to be pessimistic.