Sunday, February 15, 2004

Baby shortage

As if on cue, an article in Today's Sunday Times (London — unfortunately, subscription required outside Britain & Ireland) about Europe's great baby shortage problem (America's problem is less acute).
Unless we in the West produce more children, we face a nightmarish scenario in which the elderly outnumber the young, placing an impossible burden on the workers who must support them. Productivity will plummet. Unemployment will soar. Education will become unaffordable. Optimism will leach from the national psyche and we will become constitutionally depressed. There will be no fresh ideas, save perhaps a new socioeconomic justification for euthanasia. To survive, the EU will have to suck in large numbers of predominantly Muslim immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa.
And, I think we can safely add, those parents who have children will be increasingly unwilling to see them die in war, etc. So, our defense is also at risk.

Many people have assumed that bin Laden & co. are losers and that there's no way they can win. Yet, when you look at this problem you can see that their strategy makes perfect sense. First, ensure that Muslims avoid the western depopulation "illness" and avoid western contamination generally. Second, maintain the pressure at a level that ensures that Muslims who live in the west are not fully accepted or, therefore, westernized. And, third, never discourage migration of Muslims to the west.

They're waging a long campaign, and I think they may be winning.

The best counter strategy that we can adopt is
  1. address our population issues
  2. make a full effort to integrate Muslims who live in the west
  3. do all we can to westernize the Islamic world. Turkey and Iraq are the key battlegrounds in this strategy.
I see no reason to suspect that Muslims would not take to freedom as we have if they're given half a chance. But, we should not expect that the attempt to help liberalize the Islamic world will be met by universal acceptance. There are enemies of freedom and they're right now trying to prevent it from blossoming in Iraq.