Tuesday, November 21, 2006

The Russians

When I was in high school I read The Russians by Hedrick Smith. (It was assigned to us; I didn't pick that one up for casual reading believe me.) I'd love to wow you with the quality of my teenage insights, but the truth is I'm not sure I remember a single thing I read in that book.

I'd like to have another go at the book just to see if Smith even mentions Muslims in his 700 pages (or whatever). The reason I bring this up is because today's little E. European population vignette comes courtesy of the Washington Times, which forecasts a Muslim majority in Russia by 2050.
Russia's Muslim population has increased by 40 percent since 1989, to about 25 million. By 2015, Muslims will make up a majority of Russia's conscript army and by 2020 one-fifth of the population. "If nothing changes, in 30 years, people of Muslim descent will definitely outnumber ethnic Russians," Mr. Goble said.
That's incredible. In just over 8 years the majority of Russia's army will be Muslim. Will those guys fight in Chechnya? Or any other predominantly Muslim regions that opt for independence? Doubt it. What then?

No way Smith ever imagined such a rapid change was vaguely possible. I'm sure he didn't even anticipate the collapse of the USSR, but he may have seen those cracks. Yet, here we are only a generation later and we can see how Russia is being transformed.