Monday, November 01, 2004


Hard to get a good picture of what might happen tomorrow. Despite the optimism of Democrats and pessimism of Republicans I know, I believe Bush will win. I'm not in the US, so maybe I'm misreading the tea leaves, but nearly everyone I know lives in the deep blue of Kerry country, which may explain the views of my friends and family.

Regardless of what happens tomorrow, the future of polling is at stake. So many polls, so many wildly different conclusions. Only one can be correct, right? Well, it's possible that none will be correct and that the only sensible option is to look at an average of the polls.

I haven't had a chance to fully digest this analysis yet, but I love all the math.