That's the essence of Dick Morris's column in yesterday's NY Post and as far as I can make out from friends of mine, that's pretty much the truth. (My friends are all liberal northeasterners and most of them are pretty negative about Kerry's chances too, for whatever that's worth.)
Whether that fact is as important as Morris claims is hard to know. Just because people don't like him as a candidate doesn't mean that Kerry still won't get their votes. Also, Morris casually advises that all "Bush has to do is to persuade a few Kerry voters to stop disliking him, and he can get their votes". Well, I'm not convinced that it's all that easy for a sitting President to change anyone's mind after 4 years. The public knows him now and if someone doesn't like him, they don't like him.