I've been trying to figure out what the Chinese authorities hope to gain through their threats directed at Taiwan. It seems as clear as day to me that such a policy was always going to get the Taiwanese peoples' backs up. Taiwan's ruling party is encouraging the Taiwanese people to march in protest at China's new anti-secession law on March 26.
Today I'm wondering if the real target was not Taiwan, but Shanghai and the rest of China. Shanghai's not far from Taipei (about 400m, which is closer than Beijing) and there are a lot of commercial links between the two. Shanghai's also been experiencing significant economic growth over the past decade. There are a lot of fairly well off young Chinese in and around Shanghai.
I don't know the state of play regarding democracy movements in China, but I'm sure that some of these young middle class Chinese people are looking at what's happening in Kiev, Beirut and, especially, Taipei, and thinking to themselves, "Why not us?".
I doubt that the freedom necessary to build a successful entrepreneurial economy can be married to a political system that rewards loyalty over talent and suppression over freedom of expression, but that's what the Chinese government is attempting.
