Tuesday, March 04, 2008

They think it's all over …

… but, it's not. Hillary will win both Ohio & Texas today (although, maybe not get more delegates than Obama in Texas). Take it to the bank!

The campaign will continue because she has only two hopes of being President. "Slim and none"? No, wrong answer.

The obvious one is that she wins all the big states and convinces the super delegates that they should back the candidate who has won the big states and not cleaned up in states that the Democrats won't win in November anyway. She gets the nomination and beats McCain in November.

The second, less obvious, possibility is that she loses the nomination, but she beats up on Obama so much that she leaves only a bloody pulp for McCain to finish off in November. McCain, who will be 72 on Inauguration Day, may decide that he wants to be only a one term President or he may not be very good and Clinton comes back in 2012. Her last chance.

The second hope is a long shot, but if Obama wins in November then it's all over for Clinton's presidential ambitions. I believe her ambition trumps her party loyalty, although if she loses one of the two big ones today the party will close ranks against her and she'll have to suck it up and accept that her only hope is McCain.