The AA and the foreign national penalty point fraud

The Automoble Association claims it has "evidence of widespread fraud by companies whose Irish drivers are caught committing penalty point offences". So, what is the evidence?

Almost 440,000 drivers have received points since their introduction in 2002 but 108,000 of these drivers do not hold an Irish driving licence and so the points cannot be applied. The 'foreign' licences include those from Northern Ireland, the UK, Eastern Europe and further afield.

"The AA is also aware that there is a large amount of anecdotal evidence that individuals and companies are routinely putting forward non-nationals as the driver when an offence is committed -- even if the real driver holds an Irish licence -- in order to avoid penalty points," said Mr Faughnan.

"If your licence is not Irish, then you can thumb your nose at everything we are trying to do in road safety enforcement. This is undermining our system, and it has to be stopped."

I don't think this evidence is all that strong, to be honest. The AA says it "strains credulity that one in four drivers are esaping points because they are from the North or abroad at a time when one-in-ten of the population are non-nationals". Doesn't strain my credulity.

First of all, the overall percentage of the population is irrelevant. What's relevant is the percentage of people on the roads who have out of state licenses. And, since it seems that there's no real effort to compel those who relocate from other EU states to adopt an Irish license, I would bet that the proportion of foreign-licensed drivers on Irish roads is greater than ten percent.

• Isn't it possible that immigrants are more likely to have the type of jobs that require lots of driving?
• And, yes those born outside the state might make up a tenth of the population, but I would bet immigrants make up a bigger proportion of the age bracket that is most likely to speed, etc. (I figure those born outside the state comprise less than 10% of children and the elderly.)

Next, if the penalty points system is deterring people from speeding, as the AA believes, then surely those who are not so deterred (foreign license-holders) will be more likely to speed or whatever.

I doubt the fraud that the AA thinks is so wide-spread is having any real effect on the numbers at all.