Monday, October 13, 2003

Democratic missionary

Taiwan's former President figures he has 10 years (he's 80 now) to help Taiwan become a "a normal and complete country". He believes that the Chinese government is constrained by the Beijing Olympics in 2008 and the US military.

His point about the Olympics is interesting and probably has some merit, but I don't think he should consider US support as an automatic. Whether the US supports Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack will depend largely on the mood in the US and the trigger for such an attack. As the US becomes increasingly isolationist, as I believe it will throughout this decade, Taiwan may find itself all on its own.