Monday, May 21, 2012

Only Merkel can beat Obama in November

I know I said it on Twitter, but that's like exhaling on a cold day. Your breath is only visible for a short time before it vanishes for good. Twitter posts are the same.

So, I'll say it again: only Angela Merkel can scupper President Obama's reelection. Yes that flies in the face of all the good vibes that those on the American right are sensing, but I don't think there's much Mitt Romney can do to beat Obama in November. Anglea Merkel can, however.

The G8 summit this weekend showed how important it is that Obama convince Merkel to open Germany's coffers to underwrite European debt and save the euro – for the rest of 2012 anyway. Obama desperately needs Greece to remain the euro.

If Greece left it would trigger all sorts of uncertainty that would have unpredictable knock-on effects. Would other countries have to leave the euro? If yes, which? Ireland? Portugal? Spain? Italy? Could the euro survive even if Ireland left?

In the end these effects might only have a minimal impact on America, but the uncertainty would last through the summer. That would be enough to put the November election in doubt. That's why Obama is working overtime on Cameron & especially Hollande to "isolate" Merkel. He needs 10 months of certainty and only the Germans can give him that.