"Conclusive scientific evidence" that some people are nuts

The people of Newcastle, Co. Down can, apparently, enjoy free WiFi in at least part of the town. And not everyone is happy about this (& I'm not talking about disgruntled commercial internet providers, whose grudge I could well understand).

No, the Newcastle Sustainable Community Planning Forum organized a public meeting on the issue.

According to a NSPCF spokes-woman, the outcome of the meeting was an overwhelming majority vote for the cessation of the pilot operation until ‘conclusive scientific evidence of safety is established’, a request that Down Council allow a NSCPF presentation on the health risks associated with Wi-Fi, and that councillors be urged to review their decision.

I really don't know what to say. "Conclusive scientific evidence of safety?" I mean, do any of those people ever go swimming because I bet there is no "conclusive scientific evidence" that swimming is safe. Or eating meat. Or walking along the road. Or climbing a wall. Or ... You get the idea.

Newstalk grows up

Two years ago I said that I was abandoning Newstalk's morning and afternoon shows because they were too juvenile, particularly the morning show. I might return now that they've signed Ivan Yates to co-host the show (& I wouldn't object if Claire Byrne was quietly dropped too). I don't know what Yates is like on radio, but his columns are fantastic. I don't remember thinking so highly of him when he was in Fine Gael, but he must be pretty determined to remain outside politics at this stage because he's got a lot more presence than anyone in that party - include George Lee.

Now looking at the sun

I'm sure I've mentioned that I'm something of a climate change skeptic. I'm more than willing to accept that the climate's changing because I doubt it's ever been static. I'm also happy to say that the I can see the logic of the whole idea that what man is up to may affect the climate. What turns me off is that the science is so dependent on computer modeling and, well, why should I believe that those who have designed the models are any better at their job than those who designed the system that gave us derivatives and mortaged-backed securities and the rest of that mess.

Okay, maybe that's a cheap shot, but the problems in the financial world were more than partly caused by too many young techno-heads developing all sorts of products that the banking professionals never fully understood, never really grasped that a couple of key assumptions were faulty. Why should I assume that climatologists haven't made a similar error?

The whole thing just seems to me to be too complex for modeling, particularly when science is only now having to check their warming expectations with a less active sun.

Computer models suggest that of the 0.5C increase in global average temperatures over the past 30 years, only 10-20 per cent of the temperature variations observed were down to the Sun, although some said it was 50 per cent.

But around the turn of the century things started to change. Within a few years of the Sun’s activity starting to decline, the rise in the Earth’s temperature began to slow and has now been constant since the turn of the century. This was at the same time that the levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide carried on rising. So, is the Sun’s quietness responsible for the tail-off in global warming and if not, what is?

… If the Earth cools under a quiet Sun, then it may be an indication that the increase in the Sun’s activity since the Little Ice Age has been the dominant factor in global temperature rises. That would also mean that we have overestimated the sensitivity of the Earth’s atmosphere to an increase of carbon dioxide from the pre-industrial three parts per 10,000 by volume to today’s four parts per 10,000. Or the sun could compete with global warming, holding it back for a while. For now, all scientists can do, along with the rest of us, is to watch and wait.

Pack up your troubles ...

I told someone during the week that the best bit of good news we've had in a while was the ESRI's gloomier than thou forecast. To my mind, the ESRI is always the last to forecast a downward or an upward swing. They basically missed the Celtic Tiger - I think it was two years after the phrase "Celtic Tiger" was invented before the ESRI took its first tentative steps along the "there may be good days ahead" path.

So, this week when they went for the full throttle depression-level forecast I figured we'd hit bottom. And, the figures published yesterday that indicate a very slight possible change in our fortunes may be the beginning of the ESRi affect.

Parking at the airport

By the way, it's gotten much cheaper to park at Dublin Airport. QuickPark is now charging €5 per day , down from €7.50 and the DAA is charging €4.50 for long-term parking (if you book online).

For the love of God, no

I don't think we need to strengthen the blasphemy laws in Ireland. I think anyone who feels strongly will not be so unsettled by the wild rantings of some loon or supposed comic to want to see prosecutions.

“Blasphemous matter” is defined as matter “that is grossly abusive or insulting in relation to matters held sacred by any religion, thereby causing outrage among a substantial number of the adherents of that religion; and he or she intends, by the publication of the matter concerned, to cause such outrage.”

Well, this would be an invitation for cranks and the eternally offended to waste all sorts of police time and resources on nothing. Honestly, I sometimes have a hard time reconciling our Christian devotion to the martyrs with our over-sensitive prickly skin nowadays. It seems to me that enduring a disrespectful joke or even some ugly bigotry is not on a par with getting thrown into the ring with a hungry lion.

We don't need blasphemy laws. We need to toughen up, turn the other cheek and – if you want, I guess – boycott and petition. Oh yeah, and pray for the one who offends you. (I often wonder if the Catholic League in New York issued a press release calling on all Catholics to pray for whoever is being offensive if that wouldn't be more effective than expressing outrage.)

And, given all that's going on in Europe at the moment, this is exactly the wrong time to be introducing this legislation. Publications that want to reproduce the Danish cartoons should be entitled to do so. Booksellers who want to sell The Satanic Verses should be able to without fear of prosecution (or worse, of course).

Saturday at the airport

Obviously I'm not surprised by all the reports that air travel is down, but still I was taken aback by how quiet Dublin Airport was this past Saturday. A year ago I'd have seen loads of men - mostly men - going to soccer games in England, and of course others going wherever. But on Saturday the airport was very quiet. I didn't see many people heading over to see the big clubs. Maybe it was the flight schedules and I missed them or maybe the games were not easy to get to or whatever, but the number of Manchester United, Liverpool & Chelsea fans I saw was way down on what I anticipated.

Craven Cottage

On Saturday I spent a few hours at Craven Cottage in London watching Fulham FC against Stoke City. I'm not a huge soccer fan and I heard the game described as "terrible" and "dour," but I enjoyed it. There are things that I really liked about how soccer fans are treated that I wish baseball would incorporate.

First, no loud music. A few tunes before kick-off, but nothing else and even that music was far from the ear-shattering volume favored by the Mets (at Shea, not sure about the new place).

Second, it was warm(ish) on Saturday and I was sitting directly in the sun (in the Johnny Haynes Stand). I had to buy some water. Went to the counter expecting to be fleeced and was pleasantly surprised to learn that my 2 bottles of water only set me back £3 (about $4.40). The same two bottles of water will set you back $7.50 at Citi Field (and $10!! at the new Yankee Stadium). Later I bought a hot dog, fries and soda (No, not for me!) for £5.50 ($8). Don't know what that might cost at Citi Field, but I doubt I'd have much change left from my twenty.

Next, the Mets tore down Shea Stadium (and the Yankees Yankee Stadium) because the facilities were old, etc. I don't know how the regulars at Craven Cottage feel, but I loved the old feel to the place. The wooden benches, the brick walls and narrow passageways under the stand. My only complaint is the bathrooms were a little too basic for my delicate American sensibilities.

I would recommend that any American who wants to see an EPL game and has time in London find their way to Craven Cottage. It's not hard to get to and tickets aren't as difficult to get as those to see any of the big name clubs. (And, I have to say, I was far from the only American at the game. I couldn't get over how many Yanks were there. There were a number sitting in the area around where I was.)

And, also good was the final score: Fulham 1 Stoke City 0. My new favorite club (I've been clubless since Wimbledon abandoned South London).

Mullen & the wedding invite

No, I wasn't expecting an invite to the former Ambassador's wedding in Celbridge over the weekend. If he wasn't inclined to ask me over for a bite on Thanksgiving Day or to crack open a beer or two on Super Bowl Sunday I hardly expected Tom Foley to invite me to his and his new bride's big day.

Good luck, Mr. Ambassador, and if you happen to run into Dan Rooney on your travels you could lie and tell him that we met regularly and that I'm great company.

What I want to say about Ambassador Foley's wedding is what was Larry Mullen doing there? Back in December he said he "cringes" when he sees Bono hanging around with the two "war criminals" George Bush & Tony Blair. Well, if George Bush is a "war criminal" why would you be friendly with his appointed representative in Ireland? I could be wrong, but I kind of doubt that Mullen was a friend of Foley's before Foley took up his post here, which was long after the 2003 Iraq War.

Night Court

I was called for jury duty recently. I wouldn't have minded doing it, but I couldn't. I work for myself and simply could not afford to take the time out. I wrote asking to be excused and I was. Life when you're self-employed.

That self-employed people cannot take the time to serve on juries is obvious, but what if the numbers who are self-employed starts to rise rapidly. David McWilliams says the recovery will be "freelance driven, and not employee driven," that people will take work where they see opportunities, mostly on a temporary basis. I agree, but if we're going to be a nation of freelancers then our juries are going to suffer.

Juries will be composed of the unemployed, the occasional remaining employee in a big company and retired people. Nobody else will be able to afford to serve. If we want a jury of peers it seems to me we might have to change the way the jury trial system works. For a starter, we should have evening and night trials. Being at court for 4pm is a lot less of a problem than being there at 9am.

Did Grobbelaar throw the 'game'

Last night - for reasons that even I can't explain - I found myself watching the last few minutes of Hell's Kitchen. I listened to former Liverpool goalie Bruce Grobbelaar talking about how he wanted to be 'fired' because he wanted to get back to his wife. It sounded great, especially to the women who he was leaving behind as contestants. They were very emotional at hearing his words.

Then a minute or two later I heard him being interviewed and the woman from the BBC innocently dropped in that Gobbelaar was "the bookies' favorite." I thought to myself, "Hmm. Wasn't Grobbelaar once in a bit of hot water over accusations that he had "fixed" matches back in the early 90s? Is it possible that Bruce had a wager on someone other than himself to win Hell's Kitchen? Is it possible he 'fixed the match'?"

I doubt he did, but I was laughing at the thought of it. He actually came across as a really nice guy.

On Your Feet!

Okay, that's enough laying around doin' nuttin. Time to get this going again.

MLB.com - awful

MLB.com. Whoever runs that has to be among the dumbest people in business anywhere.

For reasons that I can't fathom, they decided that we needed an "upgrade" to the audio player that has worked just great the past 4 years (or more - can't remember). I don't know what we needed upgraded because basically all us Gameday Audio subscribers wanted was what we had. We could listen to the games when they were live or we could listen to the games from the "archive", which meant any game that was over for at least 45 minutes.

That is how I listen. I tune in first thing in the morning to hear the previous night's Met game. Until this season.

Now we have an "upgraded player" that works - sometimes - that's missing the few features that were useful (like pause if you have to go to the bathroom & fast forward to skip the ads) and has somehow delayed the archiving of the games so that what used to take 45 minutes now takes more than 8 hours.

I used to believe that MLB.com had one of the most successful online subscription businesses going, but this is really stupid. I had considered forking out a lot extra for online t.v., but the way they've treated their customers this year has turned me off the idea. In fact, since I can't listen to the games in the morning as I used to I'm not sure I'll bother with the audio subscription.

Cut CSPE

Budget cuts may mean that secondary schools will have to reduce the number of courses they can offer. Here's a suggestion: scrap CSPE. It is almost entirely propaganda and a joke. It's demise would save money and save students from learning a lot of gar-baage.

I'm sure there are other course that could be cut with zero effect on students' education (actually, cutting stuff like CSPE will be a net gain to students). Will have to think about it.

Bailout Budget

There were all sorts of names applied to yesterday's budget. It was called a mini-budget, a supplemental budget, I even saw "crisis" budget once or twice. It should have been called the "bailout" budget because that's what it was. We're now being asked to bailout the government for its profligacy. There is no other way to see this.

If Brian Cowen and his ministers had any honor at all, they'd have called an election after delivering the budget. They deserve to be unemployed just as surely as any bank boss that they've derided recently. I still can't get over the chutzpah of Lenihan basically calling for Michael Fingleton's head while taking no responsibility on himself (or the Taoiseach, in particular) for the current state of the public finances.

If Brian Cowen was a manager of a sports team he'd have been ousted long ago. But, not only is he holding on to his job, but he's going to make sure that we pay for his mistakes.

Sisters make you happy?

Hmm. What to make of this? "Sisters spread happiness while brothers breed distress, experts believe." Or this? "Having a sister makes you happier and more optimistic, say psychologists."

I grew up without sisters. Three brothers, but no sisters. Well, my sister was born when I was half way through my freshman year in college, so I didn't really "grow up" with her. And, apparently this makes it hard for me to cope with my problems. Could be true. I'm still not coping with the Mets of '06, '07 & '08, but like leaves on a tree I can't help returning in the spring. More problems in '09, undoubtedly and I'll probably still have trouble coping.

My vote counts!

The votes are counted and Tedisco 59 votes behind in the race to fill the House seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand, who's gone to the Senate, but it's not over yet because they have to count the absentee ballots. My vote is one of those.

{I can't believe that there are at least 5,000 absentee ballots to be counted. Sounds like a lot to me.}

Heading for a bankruptcy hat trick

I couldn't find the article online, but there are a couple of sentences that say so much about our banking problems. It's a long piece from this week's Sunday Times on property developer, Paddy Kelly.

Last week Kelly told a Commercial Court that he was considering bankruptcy, but here are the two sentences that caught my eye.

Through various partnerships, project companies and investment vehicles in Ireland, Europe and America, it is widely estimated that Kelly owes Anglo Irish Bank alone in excess of €700m. The Co. Laois-born developer, who has twice gone bust in the past, says that he simply got tired of trying to hide his difficulties and the massive problems within the Irish property sector.

Anything there catch your eye? How 'bout ... twice gone bust in the past?

I know a little bit about banking and I know a little bit about risk. And, to my mind, someone who has twice gone bust in the past might be just a little too risky to lend anything more than, I don't know, €250m or so? Honestly, it's just so stupid.

Oh yeah, don't miss that little "alone" in there. The Sunday Times is leaving open the question of whether Kelly owes money to any of the other banks. Uggh.

Geithner did it

I like this from the Sydney Morning Herald. Tim Geithner is the cause. He's the one who started the ball rolling towards the financial meltdown we're experiencing now. It all goes back to how he with the IMF dealt with Indonesia's problems (and , according to Australia's former Prime Minister, Paul Keating.

China, in particular, drew hard conclusions from the IMF's mishandling of the Asian crisis. It decided that it would never allow itself to be dependent on the IMF, or the US, or the West generally, for its international solvency. Instead, it would build the biggest war chest the world had ever seen.

Keating continued: "This has all been noted inside the State Council of China and by the Politburo. And it's one of the reasons, perhaps the principal reason, why convertibility of the renminbi remains off the agenda for China, and it's why through a series of exchange-rate interventions each day that they've built these massive reserves.

Keating went on to argue that, by frightening the Chinese into building their vast $US2 trillion foreign reserves, Geithner was responsible for the build-up of tremendous imbalance in the world financial system. This imbalance, in turn, according to Keating, contributed to the global financial crisis which has since devastated the world economy.

China invested most of its reserves in US debt markets. Keating again: "So we have this massive recycling of funds into the system by [the former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan] Greenspan's monetary policy so even if you are greedy Dick Fuld [the former head of the collapsed investment bank Lehman Brothers] or you are hopeless Charles Prince at Citibank, you're being told there's an endless supply of money at a low interest rate and no inflation. So of course the system geared up to spend it.

"That is the fundamental cause of the problem - the imbalance is the fundamental cause."

Them cats don't bounce

"Dead Cat Bounce." Who didn't love that phrase the first time you heard it. It could have been just about anything - 'Lump Of Wood Bounce', for example - but it's "Dead Cat Bounce." It really sums it all up.

So, that's the big question of the day/week. Is the market really rebounding or is this just a "dead cat bounce." I guess we won't know for a while, but if you read this it'll be more than the fate of the aforementioned cat that will worry you.

Canadians must face “the very real possibility that not only could the systemic global credit crisis and the spreading U.S. balance-sheet recession lead to a lost decade or worse for the global economy,” predicted veteran analyst William Macdonald in his written submission, “it could also lead to the breakdown of the globalization project itself.”

And, it goes without saying that where you read "Candaians" you can substitute whatever nationality you like (other than Zimbabwean, I guess).

The essence of the article from the Globe and Mail is that it's possible that what President Obama is trying to do is
wrong.

Throwing billions at trying to remove and resell the toxic assets that banks accumulated is a waste of time, because those assets are worthless and should be written off.

Worse, according to some, Mr. Obama's $3.6-trillion budget, with its emphasis on health care, education and energy reform, wastes money that is needed to combat the coming depression. It robs the economy of future growth by piling on debt.

Gulp. You simply cannot put the day of reckoning off forever. Too much many times the government intervened to prevent a recession.

Recessions are the medicine you hate. They may taste bad, but they're a lot better than waiting for some vital organ to give up the ghost leaving you needing major surgery and a long convalescence.